Landslide

I have been predicting a landslide for many months now. Unfortunately I have not documented it here, but those of you to whom I have spoken will remember my saying that this election would result in a landslide. I am nervous about writing this here, fearing jinxing it, but I'd like to make it public now. It seems a little less risky to say it given the recent polling and the outcome of the first debate. So here goes nothing:

Obama will win in a landslide. He will win all of the expected states, and he will also win Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, possibly West Virginia, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and there is some chance that he'll win Missouri.

So that's that. Blame me if it's jinxed.

Oh, and has anyone else wondered whether John McCain has had a stroke? He just seems incoherent and crazy. Perhaps that's how he has always been, but it seems like a bit of a personality change to me.

UPDATE. According to 270towin, my predicted outcome would result in a 375-163 electoral college win for Obama

activism

I participated in my first real protest yesterday. I was afraid going into it, but I really got into it, energized, alive, and yelling. That farce Sarah Palin dared to show her face in Philly yesterday--what the hell was she thinking? She is NOT welcome here, and it was made known to her. Hundreds of people showed up to protest her presence, and I went with a small ActUp group. We had a sign that read "Abstinence only doesn't work, right Sarah? Condoms save lives!" and we had dozens of condoms that we threw into the sky, gave to Republicans, and I even threw one into the car window of a jackass who drove by while we chanted "Abstinence Only Phoney Baloney". We marched into the already started protest chanting "No more mess, Bush in a dress" and it caught on and was wonderful. People had creative signs--I can see New Jersey from here, Santorum in lipstick, An Irish pub isn't foreign policy experience, and so many others that I can't remember now. An old man walked by and saw our sign and heard our chant and started screaming at us "CLOSE YOUR LEGS" When Republicans left the bar where she was, we screamed at them, "SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME"

VIDEO HERE and HERE

Beer update

So I've had some other beers since I last updated:


Sam Adams Oktoberfest = ***1/2 This is the classic, but it's too common

Leinenkugel Oktoberfest ***

Jack's Pumpkin Ale ***

Harpoon Octoberfest ***1/2

Dogfish Head Punkin Ale *****


That 5 star score for punkin ale is special. Dogfish Head has been called the most adventurous brewery in America, but I am starting to think it's also the best. Magic Hat used to be my favorite, but it looks like Dogfish Head is taking over. So so so good. They tend to be expensive, though, but oh well. I've paid $14 for a 4-pack, but it was the best 14 dollars I have ever spend on beer. Their 90 Minute Imperial IPA (which has been named the best beer in America) is the best beer I've ever had, and it also gets 5 stars. It is the basis on which I compare all others. On Ratebeer.com, it gets a 99.

Pravia

I had no idea that the latest gay murder victim was from the Berkshires. The media pays no attention to these things any more...Lawrence King generated some publicity, but the tone of the stories was disgusting, as he was being blamed for his own slaying. So last week Mr. K Pravia (I am leaving out the first name to avoid being google-able), a 19 year old college sophomore, was also brutally killed in NYC, and it turns out he was from Pittsfield. How sad. sad. sad. sad. and disgusting.

Once again, the media has blown it. No mention here of his gaity or of the potential anti-gay nature of the killing.

For some better coverage, check out here. And for a beautiful gathering and memorial, head here.

Matthew SHepard got all the press, the movie, the play, etc. But that was 10 years ago. The general public thinks these things have ended. The truth is that there are dozens of them every year, and no one knows a thing about them. What a shame.

**UPDATE**

More local press coverage. Still no mention.

GOP

After four days of watching these so-called Republicans, I have some thoughts I need to get off my chest.

- What a vile, disgusting, selfish group of people.

- You do NOT support a culture of life if you support war and the death penalty. sorry.

- You do NOT support judges who do not "legislate from the bench" when what you really want is for them to legislate in your favor.

- Being a POW does not itself qualify you to be president. In fact, it may disqualify you--see John McCain for example. He is obviously a psychologically scarred and unstable person. Some of his issues are so transparent--model wife #1, cheat on her, marry beauty queen wife #2, choose beauty queen VP. see a pattern?

- This group avoids the REAL problems. Education system is broke? OK, lets have school choice, charter schools, and vouchers. Why would we want to actually fix the broken system? You don't like abortion? Let's outlaw it! Why would we want to actually deal with the systemic problems that cause abortion? You don't like that young people have sex? Ok, let's tell them not to have sex! Why would we want to educate them so that they can make healthy and appropriate decisions for themselves? Osama bin Laden is a bad guy? OK, let's invade Iraq! Why would we want to hunt down the real enemy?

- Rudy Guiliani is a horrible horrible human being. I used to like the guy.

- As Andrew would say, the christianists have taken over completely. Palin is the real candidate now. They're voting for her, not for Sidney McCain. I'll re-pose Andrew's question--do you think McCain realizes he is presiding over a theological movement? They'll vote for her because she is "like them," not because of any particular qualifications she has for office or ideas she has for the betterment of the world. All she wants is to implement the evangelical christianist vision and turn this country into a theocracy equal to those of the Muslims we supposedly hate for their lack of "freedom." The establishment of a Christianist theocracy will do more to remove freedom than anyone can imagine.

- For these people, "energy independence" means nothing. It means line oil companies pockets by drilling for more oil in our country. This will solve nothing, and it will not allow us to become independent from oil. If anyhting, it will slightly lower oil prices, making us further dependent on the stuff as we can afford it more readily. True energy independence means getting off that stuff--the stuff that hurts our national security and that destroys our planet. We need other sources, we need ingenuity...we don't need to just find more oil. That will change nothing.

- You cannot be the party rallying against the good ol' boys club when YOU ARE THE GOOD OL' BOYS CLUB. The hall was filled with white haired white men. Give me a break.

That's all, I think. Please Barack. Please.

you know, after writing my little homage to fall beers, I had another thought about fall:

This is the last Fall in which I will be beginning the school year as a full-time student. After 22 consecutive first days of school early in September, I will be done. DONE. I will miss the autumnal sense of newness, of dread, of preparation, and of academic excitement. But I will not miss the grind. Falls will be different from now on. Everything will be different.

Autumn

There is nothing in this world quite like Fall in New England. Specifically, there is nothing like driving from the Berkshires into Southern Vermont, through the Green Mountains and the cacophonous foliage of those vast hills. Reaching the Apple Barn is like reaching the distant destination of dreams. Upon entering, the pumpkins and apples and cider and people create an unreplicable experience. I am sad that this year I will most likely not have this experience. Life is getting in the way of a trip to the North. I must say, though, that I am grateful to those who try to capture this experience, especially to those who try to capture it in a bottle.

I am generally a fan of seasonal beer, but Fall beers top all others. Summer beers are nice, especially when it gets really hot, and I quite enjoy some of them (Magic Hat Hocus Pocus, Harpoon UFO, Landshark, etc.). But they cannot compare to the experience of a fall beer--getting the first whiff of the spiciness, taking the first sip of the tastiness, feeling like you're consuming dried up leaves, pumpkins, the harvest, and new england autumn. I don't think I'll be able to keep it up because of the massive amount of work I have to complete this fall, but so far I have been enjoying a nice sampling of some of the best Fall has to offer.

I entered Total Wine the other day, totally not expecting fall beers to be out yet, and I was supremely surprised to see the wonderful selection they had amassed. Thus far I have savored Magic Hat's "Jinx," Fordham's "Close Encounter Harvest Ale," and now Flying Fish's "Oktoberfish."

Close Encounter ***
Jinx ***1/2
Oktoberfish ****

I think I'd like to change my chosen career and become a beer critic.